{"id":18249,"date":"2010-11-04T11:13:19","date_gmt":"2010-11-04T15:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fryeblog.blog.lib.mcmaster.ca\/?p=18249"},"modified":"2010-11-04T11:13:19","modified_gmt":"2010-11-04T15:13:19","slug":"cell-phone-demographic-a-final-word","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/macblog.mcmaster.ca\/fryeblog\/2010\/11\/04\/cell-phone-demographic-a-final-word\/","title":{"rendered":"The Cell Phone Effect: A Final Word"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Andrew Sullivan has a post<\/a> up today demonstrating that while it did not affect the outcome, two pollsters — Fox and Rasmussen (essentially the propaganda wings of the Republican party) — skewed Republican support by 3-4% throughout the entire election cycle by not including any cell phone-only users in their data at any point.\u00a0 That’s why we saw numbers like these in amalgamated poll results: Republicans, 50%; Democrats 41%.\u00a0 The actual numbers were 49% and 43%.\u00a0 But Fox and Rasmussen were providing the GOP with ludicrous 13% leads, and that tilted all of the data heavily in the party’s direction.\u00a0 And it can’t be that they didn’t know what they were doing — they were outliers the entire time and they knew what the effect on polling averages would be.<\/p>\n

Now, again, it didn’t affect the outcome directly, but the Dems nevertheless had more support than was registered — and, by no coincidence — among the demographic Republicans fear most and have a self-interest to exclude: young, urban, liberal.<\/p>\n

There’s also a cynical self-fulfilling prophecy about all of this; if people think an election’s a forgone conclusion (which of course is what Fox was screaming at the top of its lungs for weeks on end), then the so-called “enthusiasm gap” (also shrieked about endlessly) may be fed until it is feeding itself.<\/p>\n

The point is that this is a familiar Republican trick: voter caging — to keep, by whatever means possible, either directly or indirectly, Democrats away from the polls.\u00a0 And it is, moreover, enabled by a lazy and incompetent mainstream news media which prefers “narratives” to facts.<\/p>\n

At the very least, it demonstrates that pollsters must now make a point of polling cell phone-only users.\u00a0 If they do not, they are effectively staking the Republicans an advantage every time that does not actually represent voter intent — which of course makes pollsters not only useless, but dangerous to the democratic process.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Andrew Sullivan has a post up today demonstrating that while it did not affect the outcome, two pollsters — Fox and Rasmussen (essentially the propaganda wings of the Republican party) — skewed Republican support by 3-4% throughout the entire election cycle by not including any cell phone-only users in their data at any point.\u00a0 That’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Cell Phone Effect: A Final Word - The Educated Imagination<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/macblog.mcmaster.ca\/fryeblog\/2010\/11\/04\/cell-phone-demographic-a-final-word\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Cell Phone Effect: A Final Word - 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